When it comes to food, we often have to choose between health, convenience, and taste. Parents struggle to get their kids to eat veggies. The same daily salad can become boring or bland over time. Produce often withers in the crisper drawer.

Betterer Foods set out to make one of the world's favorite foods healthier. Rice is a beloved food across many cultures, but many people now avoid simple carbohydrates due to diet restrictions or health concerns. Innovations and alternative options have mostly been limited to products in the freezer section, like riced cauliflower.

Betterer Foods created RightRice: a dry, shelf-stable grain made from rice and vegetables, including lentils, chickpeas, and green peas. RightRice has more than double the protein, five times the fiber, and 40 percent fewer net carbs than traditional rice. But the product still tastes and looks like rice, and is faster and easier to cook.

RightRice founder Keith Belling, the founder and former CEO of popchips, asked IDEO to design a brand that would communicate the product’s benefits. The start-up needed everything from a defined target consumer and brand story to a stand-out package design, website, and go-to-market materials.

The team listened to people's challenges with rice and eating healthfully: home cooks find it difficult to store fresh foods without them going bad, busy professionals are strapped for time when preparing balanced meals, and parents sneak vegetables into dishes like casseroles or mac and cheese. Some consumers say they avoid rice because it’s a carbohydrate, which is forbidden in so many of today’s diets. People describe themselves as “carb phobic” or say they consider rice a “guilty pleasure.” Others don’t eat rice because it makes them feel sluggish or bloated, or is too difficult or time-consuming to prepare. Overall, people wished rice could be healthier, simpler to cook, and still taste delicious.

IDEO translated these insights into a brand foundation that helped RightRice come to life on shelves, online, and in the world. The package messaging emphasizes the vegetable ingredients, and the cut-out window lets consumers see that the product looks like rice. The shape of the window simultaneously forms a bowl of rice and a smile.

Rice is a household staple around the world. The RightRice brand makes it easier for consumers to have health, convenience, and good taste in one accessible product. RightRice launched nationwide in Whole Foods and Amazon in February 2019.

Since this launch, the company has expanded both its reach and product line. RightRice is now available in nearly 5,000 retailers nationwide in addition to Whole Foods and Amazon, including Sprouts, Wegmans, and approximately 1,800 Kroger stores. Over one million bags have been sold.

The company has received numerous awards and acclaim, including being named “Best Plant-Based” by People’s 2019 Food Awards. Building on the success of RightRice, Belling and his team launched RightRice Medley, a blend of RightRice, ancient grains, and vegetables, in 2020. This new product, which features the same branding the company created with IDEO, has doubled the company’s shelf presence at Whole Foods.

After 40 years of rapid development, China's economic growth has reached a critical turning point.

However, looking at the world, today is also the most complex and uncertain era in human history. The traditional engine of economic development is slowing down, while innovation and other emerging ideas are helping the economy burst into dynamism. To ride this trend, China has already put in place comprehensive policies to ensure that the country can achieve this magnificent transformation—not only to maintain economic growth, but also to achieve high-quality development. To this end, what China needs most is a group of new business leaders with a sense of cooperation and innovation to lead and realize this change as a pioneering force.

People of insight can often see the situation clearly with a forward-looking eye. China's society and economy are undergoing transformation and upgrading, and market demands are constantly changing driven by technology. While seeking business development, many mature entrepreneurs with successful experience have realized that they need to explore some of the most essential issues inwardly, including: The original intention and mission of the enterprise and the role that enterprise leaders should play. However, without a systematic approach, transformation and upgrading, strategic decision-making, management mode and cultural construction cannot truly serve the enterprise

As a top institution of higher learning in China, Tsinghua University has always placed an important strategic position on cultivating innovative talents for China. IDEO is the world's leading design and innovation consulting firm. As a pioneer of design thinking, IDEO has always been committed to applying design and innovation capabilities to solve the world's most complex problems. After discovering the need for China's economic and social transformation and the need for innovative leadership by Chinese entrepreneurs, Tsinghua University and IDEO jointly launched the "Leading China" program in 2018. This program is aimed at senior management of Chinese enterprises, and aims to train entrepreneur trainees to use new perspectives and ideas through a one-year innovative leadership course to seek solutions for the systemic changes that need to be achieved in the process of social transformation in China.

The students of the first "Leading China" program came from more than 30 entrepreneurs from 20 different industries. The teachers who participated in the lecture included 73 Chinese and foreign experts including Shan Jixiang, the former dean of the Forbidden City, Masahiro Kuroyama, the father of Japanese industrial design, and Jake Knapp, the inventor of "Design Sprint". As China's first innovative leadership course with design thinking as the core, the project is equipped with "design to open enterprise creativity", "reshape enterprise competitive advantage", "forge innovative business system", "innovate with the help of finance", "embracing Industrial Revolution 4.0" and "Win-win China Created 2030" six modules. The trainees traveled to nine cities in one year, and completed the courses in the interactive teaching of inspiration and the exchange and sharing of practical experience. Many students said that the course not only helped them find the direction and path of enterprise reform, but also improved their way of thinking, strategic planning and leadership models.

Liu Feng, the founder of Top Intelligence, gave an example of the inspiration brought by the six pillars of "vision-led" enterprise reform. Through "vision leadership", he not only sorted out the original intention and values ​​of the company, but also launched a series of measures based on this starting point, which improved the company's various aspects from the telephone customer service process to the organization of the annual meeting, and mobilized the enthusiasm of employees. This greatly improves the company's efficiency and flexibility. Ting Zhihong, chairman of Hongtu Logistics Co., for example, said that the biggest change brought by the course is her awareness of the importance of empowering the team. The company has now built many platforms to give employees more room to play, to create markets, to put decision-making on the front line, and to let employees play the role of company operators. Her company doubled its profits in 2018. Hu Chao, founder and CEO of Leyou Pregnancy and Baby, introduced that what most executive courses learn is knowledge, and what this course learns is people-oriented values ​​and ways of thinking.

The students of the first class of "Leading China" graduated in December 2018. Regarding the course of this year, Wang Jingwei, former assistant dean of the PBC School of Finance, Tsinghua University, commented: "Since the project was launched, we have not only witnessed the true value of design in a business context, but also experienced first-hand the use of people-oriented The difference between the designed executive courses is that the entrepreneurs who participated in the courses quickly entered a state of immersive learning, and many students quickly began to practice the methods they learned in the enterprise.”

On April 8, 2019, the list of winners of the 3rd "Changing the World Innovation Award" was announced, and the "Leading China" project was shortlisted for case nomination, becoming the only Chinese innovation case in the education category. The "Change the World Innovation Award" was announced by Fast Company, one of the world's three major financial and business media organizations.

As one of the world’s leading smartphone manufacturers, the Chinese brand vivo is widely known for its exceptional technological innovation and top-of-the-line photography and gaming hardware. But in an increasingly saturated phone market, vivo understood that it wasn’t enough to lead the pack based solely on technological excellence. To win the hearts of young Chinese consumers, they needed to become a beloved brand.

China consumes roughly 30 percent of the world’s smartphones, presenting a tremendous market opportunity to brands who wish to capture young consumers’ loyalty. In order to achieve that, vivo wanted to design a complete brand experience beyond the devices themselves—one that would express the joyful vivo brand spirit through services and retail experiences. One of their first key initiatives was to build its first concept store in an iconic building in Shenzhen, China.

Before building the concept store, vivo approached IDEO to explore what kind of in-store experience would resonate with young Chinese people. The concept store needed to convey joy in a meaningful, tangible way, while also setting the stage for vivo’s future brand systems. With this in mind, IDEO set out to explore how vivo’s young consumers experience fun.

After conducting research in four different cities, IDEO shared the stories of young Chinese consumers back with the vivo team. Their interviews revealed that young people value experiences that enrich their lives and create a feeling of positive personal transformation. They seek opportunities to expose themselves to new experiences, express themselves in different ways, expand and deepen their social connections, and build knowledge and skills.

Through this understanding of how young Chinese define “enjoyment,” IDEO helped vivo identify the value proposition of the concept store as expressing oneself in new and different ways. The store would allow every visitor to see something unique and find a fresh perspective. The vivo team took that value proposition into a design brief and later built out the space and interactive experiences.

The concept store launched at Shenzhen on March 22, 2019, featuring an upper level dedicated entirely to interactive experiences with photo booths, sound recording, and lighting technology. The engaging, lively and positive atmosphere of the store represents a major milestone in vivo’s transformation from a smartphone maker to a consumer brand.

WATCH: Official launch video provided by vivo.

As China's agriculture moves towards scale and sustainability, helping farmers grow healthier food with resilience is a matter of national economic security and individual livelihoods.

Bayer Crop Science—with its mission to accelerate China's agricultural modernization and benefit Chinese farmers and consumers—has provided high-quality products for millions of growers in China over 18 years. Yet its service relies heavily on multi-layered distributors and retailers across the country. The last mile of Bayer’s product delivery spreads across tens of thousands of highly fragmented retail stores, making the quality of service difficult to monitor and control.

Together with IDEO, Bayer Crop Science aimed to uncover new ways to engage with local farmers and retailers, and develop design concepts for its diverse set of retailers—establishing local relevance as well as the potential to scale nationwide.

With this ambition in mind, a team formed by Bayer Crop Science and IDEO launched into a design sprint in the rice fields of China’s Anhui province. Field research uncovered multiple challenges facing Bayer Crop Science’s retailers. First, each store needed to serve more than one hundred farmers, many of whom rely solely on the store owner to understand how to use the products. Retailers struggled to meet a high daily demand for direct support in a way that provided a positive customer experience.

In turn, farmers felt they had insufficient access to expert advice. While many farmers shared similar needs, there was no system for aggregating requests or arranging group instruction. Given that many rice farmers are illiterate, pre-printed educational pamphlets had limited impact, and retailers lacked tools for providing targeted support. And because the retail stores were also used for storage, little space remained for educational or community programming.

With these constraints in mind, the team needed to come up with ideas and design concepts that could be easily integrated into the daily lives of the retail store owners. The team brainstormed hundreds of concepts and quickly prototyped a select few. One retail store in Dangtu was transformed entirely into a live prototype set. Over three days, more than 50 farmers and retailers came through and provided feedback. From there, the team was able to make daily iterations of the concept, evolving the experience in real-time.

The Bayer team was energized by the potential of these prototypes to enable more customer-centered retail experiences. An exhibition of the concepts was set up during the National Annual Sales Conference of Bayer Crop Science in China, during which a much wider audience from Bayer experienced not only the concepts, but also the immediate feedback from farmers.

One year after the project’s completion, more than half of the design concepts have been included in Bayer's support kit for dealers. In 2019, these concepts will be rolled out in more than 1,000 flagship stores across China.

The work has also accelerated Bayer Crop Science’s efforts to build an ongoing engagement mechanism with its retailers and growers. Its online platform, Bayer Joy Grower, now has more than 10,000 retailers and will be expanded to growers soon.

But we'd be fools to claim that we can always see what's coming around the bend. Never trust anyone who says they can predict the future.

Nevertheless, we have launched ourselves into the unknown for decades. Joining a long history of science fiction, this is an exercise in speculative design, where we build on early signals we're picking up and ask, “What if?” At times, our speculation about the future has come across as a little too naive and niche, like when we proposed stamping fruit with the full FDA nutrition label or suggested a fixie-inspired walker for senior hipsters. But when we’ve set our sights on what tomorrow’s humans might want from our clients, our portfolio of the future has been startlingly prescient.

In 2005, two years before Steve Jobs announced the iPhone, a short film we made with Intel showcased the hyperconnected, hypermobile, on-demand lifestyle we all know now.

That same year, we created a series of shorts for HBO foretelling a world of personalized streaming content—well over a decade before binging our favorite shows became standard fare.

In 2010, our exploration of the future of the book anticipated the need to verify the legitimacy of sources on social media platforms such as Facebook and Twitter.

These predictions may seem easy to come up with in hindsight, and in one sense that is true. When you pair the exponential power of technology (Moore’s Law) with evergreen human needs, it leads to logical conclusions. The harder part is making such foresight tangible.

That’s where design becomes a valuable tool.

IKEA, which has its own future-facing research and design lab, Space10, understands the power of tangibility. We partnered with the company in 2015 to imagine the future kitchen. The final exhibit, staged at EXPO Milano, anticipated an augmented reality in which screens and data are no longer confined to devices. More than an exhibition, the prototype served as a strategic roadmap for integrating multi-sensory digital content into a built environment and helped IKEA build an organizational belief in, and understanding of, this technological shift.

We’ve delved into the future of automobility, manufacturing, connected intimacy, the workplace, blockchain, and artificial intelligence. We’ve also used design fiction to explore complex human experiences like aging, citizenship, and time. These “What-Ifs” aren't an art school indulgence. Rather, they are queries about what world we want to inhabit and what choices we need to make today in order to get there.

While we don’t believe our era is any more exceptional than the next, the choices we are making today feel more consequential. We are facing global economic contraction, the explosion of artificial intelligence, and a developing climate crisis that scientists say could cross an irreversible threshold by the end of this decade.

The urgency to ready our clients, ourselves, and everyone for the Climate Era has been a longtime obsession. In 2017 we designed an exhibition called “Never Finished” to illustrate the principles of a circular economy. We reimagined makeup, food packaging, sneakers, and electronic devices as part of regenerative systems. A few years later, this fiction became a beacon for global fashion leader H&M, whose pursuit of a circular future has involved eliminating plastics from its consumer packaging.

But even the most on-the-nose prediction about what the future will bring can go sideways. In 1997, Kodak asked us to create a consumer experience for digital photography. Using that era’s available technology, we built a fully working digital camera with an integrated screen menu. The working prototype was nearly twice the size of what cameras would become, but it established the fundamental experience of digital photography that we use today.

While the team at Kodak hoped to design a pioneering new product, they ultimately didn’t have the internal alignment to move forward. Instead, they continued investing in film, a choice that ultimately proved to be a losing bet.

The takeaway: Even the most beautiful speculative design won’t sway hearts if the leaders of an organization don’t have the ambition or desire to invest in a better future—and we don’t mean just a profitable one. “What if?” is the beginning of a design-driven process to understand what choices we need to make today in order to create the future we want.

While the contracting economy, climate change, and systemic bias can feel insurmountable, we remain optimistic. Over the coming year, we will be sharing a series of design fictions that portray a world in which we got things right.

The questions we are asking—“What if everything is electrified and we have abundant energy?” and “What is the future of ordinary data?” and “How do we unleash the creative capacity of the next generation?”—are shorthand for deeper investigations into how we redesign consumer goods, healthcare, AI, and education.

Turning these questions into experiences so that others can visualize, feel, and participate in a better world is an essential practice of design and, for businesses that want to be here in 2033, the only way to stay relevant.

We will begin each of these design fictions, which will roll out over the coming year, with a letter:

“Dear Future, we designed this for you…”

We may never meet those born 10 or 20 or 30 years from now who will live out these visions (or something that looks quite different), but that doesn’t mean we’re off the hook. We are accountable to one another and stewards of a fragile planet. In 10 years, every business will have become a design business because every business will have had to change. And every person will have a hand in designing our future.

*One sentence in this article was written by ChatGPT after giving it the prompt “Slogan for a campaign about designing the future.” Can you guess which line?

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Hero image: Magic Mirror, an augmented reality dressing room designed for Prada in 2003 in partnership with OMA.

We designers are optimistic to a fault. We believe we can build something better and will take great leaps of faith to prove it.

I grew up in Singapore, the ultimate small-but-mighty island at the tip of the Malaysian Peninsula. As I grew up, I watched it transform from jungle kampongs and a river so dirty that it glowed neon green, into the ultimate modern metropolis.

Singaporeans now enjoy some of the best quality of life in an integrated society. It is home to the world's best airport and has become a sophisticated financial hub, and even made history in the universe of gastronomy, receiving the first ever Michelin star for street food. The river itself is now so clean that dolphins and fish have returned in droves.

Fast forward 50 or so years. My partner and I have found ourselves living in Iceland for the last three years, the literal polar opposite of Singapore, but equally impressive. You need only pick up any quality-of-life index to find Iceland near the top of the safest, most egalitarian, most tolerant civil societies in the world. The country has taken a leading-edge approach to climate science, with bold plans for its domestic geothermal energy and the electrification of its transport system.

To be sure, it’s a rather isolated island with a population under 400,000 in the middle of the Arctic Sea. Nonetheless, Iceland was led with a calm and steady hand through the COVID-19 pandemic, achieving a 91% vaccination rate in record time. It’s a society that is well read, well informed, and one in which citizens revere nature, considering themselves guardians of the wild environs they've inherited.

A word I often use to describe life here is “sane”. Icelanders are pragmatic, do not hyperbolize or dramatize, and work together to achieve collective goals. Icelandic businesses feel it is important to do their part, too. The national flagship airline, Icelandair, recently announced that they will decarbonize all internal flights by the end of the decade, the first national carrier in the world to do so.

In the years between inhabiting these two islands, I have lived, studied and worked around the world, spending considerable time in Norway, Denmark, Finland, New Zealand and the UAE, all of which play at a much more significant scale on the world stage than their geographic mass would suggest. It helps that all of these nations are well led, with crisp, long-term plans and goals. And it is no coincidence to me that in many cases they are led by women.

Other small nations that I watch from a distance, like Estonia, are digital pioneers, transforming an antiquated governmental system into an e-Residency – their human-centred, digital citizenship program. Way back in 2014, Estonians described themselves as a “start-up country”. Rwanda has followed suit with similar initiatives: one-stop digital services designed to incentivize small commercial enterprises and entrepreneurs to launch businesses there. Finally, we must shine a light on Ukraine which, whilst in the midst of war, are making plans to regenerate themselves, building a greener, more modern society out of the ashes and carnage.

So, what do these Small Awesome Nations (SANs for short) have in common, and what do they have to teach us all?

SANs act faster: COVID-19 taught us all, especially governments, that cumbersome bureaucracy and endless consensus-building wasn’t just unnecessary, it was life-threatening. To be able to quickly assemble task forces as information came in and cut through red tape was critical. Smaller countries mobilized at record pace, and in many cases got essential supplies to the frontlines faster. Taiwan, China, for example, immediately activated contact tracing and phone tracking to make sure that those in quarantine were actually fulfilling their end of the deal. The fact that Taiwan's vice president is an epidemiologist didn’t hurt.

SANs talk like people, not governments: To me, this is critical. Early in the crisis, the Norwegian prime minister, Erna Solberg, broadcasted a specific COVID-19 address to the children of Norway, saying: “Many children are finding this scary. I can understand that. It’s quite OK to be a bit scared when so many big things are happening at once.” Taking a direct, matter-of-fact tone, she assured them that their parents would likely be fine, but acknowledged that they might miss birthday parties and life at home would be “a bit boring.” New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Arden declared on national TV that the Tooth Fairy and the Easter Bunny were both considered “essential workers” in New Zealand, but that they might also be at home, “tending to their own baby bunnies.”

SANs value the perspectives of the next generation: The human-first, sure-handed leadership of both Solberg and Arden is especially compelling in a time when so many young people express apathy about politicians who “don’t speak to us.” Addressing that lack of engagement, the UAE government hired 23-year-old Shamma bint Suhail Faris Mazrui as its first minister of state for youth affairs in 2016. At the time, she was the youngest serving minister in the world. She is now one of the most outspoken advocates for youth voices and perspectives, ensuring her generation and the next are shaping government programs and policies. When asked at Davos why the ideas of Emirati youth were so important to her government, she said: “Hopelessness results when youth are not seen as resources, and apathy results when they’re not seen as assets.”

Then there is Sophie Howe, Wales’s first future generations commissioner. Described by The Guardian as the world’s first “Minister for the Unborn”, Sophie’s role is to provide independent advice to the government and other public bodies on delivering social, economic, environmental, and cultural wellbeing for current and future generations. She’s a committed champion of the next generation and, in particular, for tapping into youth culture as a resource for creating societal change. I was part of an event she created at COP26 in Glasgow where they brought together youth with poetry, music, conversation and politics. It was a potent mix, more akin to a Taylor Swift concert than a governmental think tank, and I watched the young audience members' eyes glow with pride at the end, feeling both spoken to and heard.

What's become clear (and really exciting) to me is that these Small Awesome Nations are gathering momentum and growing in influence. These nimble countries have, in many ways, responded to the conditions of the larger world with its attendant chaos by reinventing traditional ways of doing things. And in the process of disrupting themselves, they’ve learned valuable lessons that their bigger cousins would do well to follow as they look toward the future.

If there was to be an actual League of SANs, what would you want its mandate to be? Which country would get your vote as a founding member and why? We'd love to hear from you in the comments.

Republished from the World Economic Forum's Agenda

For as long as I can remember, I’ve been obsessed with small countries. Specifically, small nations with superpowers that larger nations covet.

一般的に「新しいものを生み出す」仕事は、いわゆる企画職、デザイナー職などの職種の人が行い、データアナリストやデータサイエンティストと呼ばれる人たちは、事業が回り始めデータが溜まってきた「今あるものをより良くする」タイミングで価値を発揮することが多いのではないだろうか。新しいものを生み出そうとしている段階ではまだデータもなく、そこでのデータ活用はイメージしにくいだろう。

しかし、実は、このフェーズにおいても、データを分析し活用することに知見を持つ人と協業することで、よりよいモノを生むことにつながる場合がある。IDEOでデータサイエンティストとして働く私の経験も踏まえ、新しいものを生み出す仕事におけるデータ活用の可能性について紹介したい。

データを通して人のニーズを理解する

IDEOのプロジェクトでは、デザインリサーチという手法を用い、人にとって高い価値や有用性を持つアイデアを探るのが一般的である。インタビューやシャドーイング（ユーザーの生活環境に身を置き、存在を意識させないように観察すること）など、定性的なアプローチを通して、「狭く深く」人やその人が生活している環境と向き合い、インサイトを見つけ出す。元来、このプロセスにおいてデータを活用することは、今までIDEOでもあまり取り組んでこなかったことであった。しかし、実はデザインリサーチのプロセスにおいてもデータは有効な使い方があることがわかってきており、近年データサイエンスも手法として取り入れる例が増えている。

データの使い所の１つ目は、定性的なアプローチに、データによる定量的な観点を取り入れることだ。例えば、過去にIDEOで乳がん患者と医療従事者両者向けのサービスのコンセプトを作るプロジェクトに取り組んだ際、定性リサーチを通して患者さんと医療従事者双方にとってどういったコンセプトにニーズがありそうか、いくつかの方向性が見えてきていた。しかし、どのコンセプトも、医療従事者に現在の業務の流れを少し変更してもらう必要があるものであった。日々忙しい医療従事者に業務の流れの変更を強いるのはハードルが高い。そこで、コンセプトごとのハードルはどのくらい高いのか、そしてそのハードルを超える工夫としてどんなものが考えられるか、ということが次の焦点になった。ここで、チームは定量的なリサーチを組み込むことにした。アンケート調査を行い、医師、看護師、薬剤師の三者が、我々が考えていたそれぞれのコンセプトを導入するとした際にどれだけ負担を感じるかを調査したのだ。

その結果、「コンセプトAを進めるときには看護師の協力を得ることが鍵になる。看護師の協力を得るためにはどのような仕立てが必要か？」、「コンセプトBは、導入をスタートすること自体の負荷は低いが、継続的に運用していくとなると負荷が高い。継続の負荷を減らすためにはどのようにしたらよいか？」といった形で、定性調査での学びに加えて、また別の角度から理解を深めることができたと同時に、新たな仮説や問いを立て、そこからまた次の定性調査でリサーチすべきことを練ることができた。一般的には、定性リサーチで得られた知見や仮説を定量的に裏付ける一方通行の進め方が多いと思うが、重要なのは、振り子のように定性と定量を行ったり来たりしながらアイデアや仮説をどんどん発展させていくことだ。

２つ目は、データは定性リサーチに赴く際の一つの武器にできるということ。IDEOで、農家に向けた経営支援サービスを開発していた際、畑で得られたデータを、農家の経営をサポートする形に変換し、可視化するサービスの企画・デザインを行っていた。農家にデータを入力してもらう部分のUXについては概ね固まってきていた一方、どのようにそのデータを農家さんにとって有用な形で見せることができるかが定まっていなかった。そこで用いたのが、紙とペンを使ったデータビジュアライゼーションである。取得したデータを可視化する方法のアイデアを考えられるだけ考え、それらのグラフをすべて紙に描き、農家さんのところに持っていった。一枚一枚グラフを見せながら話を聞くと、どれが有益でどれがそうでもないかを教えてもらえたとともに、なぜそうなのかを深堀りして聞くことができた。サービスがまだ存在していなければデータも存在しない。分析するデータがなければデータ活用などできない、と思うかもしれないが、このように想像をもとに可視化されたデータを見せるだけでも、人はいろいろな反応を見せてくれる。

サービスの体験にデータの蓄積と活用を埋め込む

前節でも紹介したデザインリサーチの過程を通じて人のニーズや人が抱える問題の理解が深まったあと、そのソリューションを考えるフェーズに入る。このときに、大きなテーマとして比較的頻繁に登場するのが、「感覚的に物事を判断することが常態化していて、それにより様々な機会を逸している」ということだ。細かいニュアンスはその時々や業界によって違えど、特にtoBのビジネスアイデアを考えているときに、この問題はよく発生する。

例えば、以前IDEOで飲食チェーン向けの経営支援SaaSのデザインを手掛けるプロジェクトがあった。リサーチを通して浮かび上がってきたのは、本部と店舗のコミュニケーションと連携の問題。現場では短期的な売上達成を目指すためにその場の勘と経験の判断でオペレーションが回っている一方、本部ではその実態を正確に把握できずに売上と日報を確認する程度のことしかできず、組織として過去を振り返りながら次の施策に活かしていくということができていなかった。連絡方法も、FAX、メール、電話、LINEなどいろいろな手段がバラバラに使われている状況だった。

ここでIDEOチームはさまざまなアイデアのスケッチやプロトタイプを作り飲食業界で働く人々に見てもらいながらアイデアを練っていったが、最終的なコンセプトは、飲食店で発生するさまざまなデータの蓄積と分析を自動的に行い、インサイトを抽出し、それをもとに店舗で行う施策の発案、実行、振り返りを本部と店舗間で行いやすくするプラットフォームだった。コミュニケーションの問題をそのまま解消しようとするコミュニケーションツールではなく、データを軸にしたコンセプトになっていったのは、データにいくつかのポテンシャルが秘められていることがわかったからだ。それは、人間が感覚的にやっていて気づかない部分を可視化して気付かせてあげる力、関係者間で同じものを見させて認識の差を埋める力、過去を自信をもって振り返ることで次なる施策に向け背中を押してくれる力、などだ。これに限らず、データはうまく使えば、あらゆる形で人の行動を変える力を持っている。いかに自然な形で人にデータの記録や蓄積をしてもらうか、そしていかに自然な形でそれを使ってアクションをとってもらうかをうまくデザインするのは難しいが、成功すればそのサービスを非常にユニークで魅力的なものにしてくれる。

データを通じて未来のシナリオを想像する

リサーチを通して人々のニーズがわかり、それらをコンセプトの形に昇華し、さらにプロトタイプを通して具体的なサービスの形やUXが固まっていくと、次第に議論の焦点はビジネスの持続性の観点に移っていくことが多い。新しいサービスやプロダクトの開発とその市場投入には大きなコストがかかるため、決裁者に投資判断を仰ぐ際には、マーケット規模はどれくらいか、ターゲットは誰か、収益性はどれくらい見込めるのかなど、いろいろなことを問われる。こうした場合、担当者はネット上の記事やシンクタンクなどの調査レポートを参照しながら、仮定に仮定を重ねてそれらしい数字を作って説得を試みることが多いのではないだろうか。ここでもデータをうまく使うことで、事業の持続性に関して考えを深めることが可能だ。

IDEOが以前、別の農業系のプロジェクトを手掛けていたときだ。サービスのデザインが大枠固まってきた段階で議論の焦点になったのは、「ユーザ数、売上の推移はどうなるのか」「いつ頃から利益が出てくるのか」「データはどれくらい溜まっていくのか。それを使ってビジネスを新たに考えるに足る量はいつごろ溜まるのか」「カスタマーサポートにはどれくらいのコストがかかるのか」などといったビジネス方面のものだった。誰もやったことがないので正確にはわかるはずもなく、なんとかそれらしい仮定を置きながらもっともらしい数字を出そうとしたが、どうしても根拠が弱く、空中戦の議論に陥ってしまっていた。

そこで、私はいくつかのイメージしやすいパラメータをもとに、ユーザ数の推移をシミュレートし、可視化するものを作った。ここでいうパラメータとは例えば、「営業による月間新規顧客獲得数」「口コミがどれくらい発生するか（一月あたり何人のユーザにつき一人の新規ユーザが獲得できるか）」「サービス利用開始1ヶ月の間で何%の確率で解約するか」といったようなものである（実際にはもっと多数のパラメータが用意してある）。こういったパラメータの値に応じて、擬似的にユーザを生成して、ユーザごとにいつからいつまでどれくらいサービスを利用していたかを確率的に決定し、それを集計することで数年後の未来でそのサービスがどの程度の規模で使われているかをイメージしやすくした。

これにより決裁者に向けて、より説得力をもって事業計画を伝えられるという効果はあったが、最終的に算出された値が正しいかどうかは実は重要ではない。それよりも興味深かったのは、この取り組みにより事業計画に対するチームの考えと議論が一段深まったことだった。ユーザ数や売上を直接考えるよりも、それらをイメージしやすいパラメータに分解し、それらの積み上げで数字を作ると、よりリアルに感じられる数字になる。この「リアルに感じられる」というのが大事で、これが人の想像力を刺激し、未来をより具体的にイメージするきっかけになる。そこから、例えば「口コミを生むにはUXのどの部分が大事なのか」「カスタマーサポートに電話がかかりすぎないようにする工夫はどのようなものが考えられるか」など、より具体的な問いが次々と生まれ、ビジネスの観点での検討がぐっと前に進んだ。フェイクなデータを作ってそれでビジネスの議論をする、というのは普通の「データサイエンティスト」だったらやらないことだが、目的を「問いと仮説の精度を上げて思考を前に進めること」とおけば、こういうのもアリなのである。

過去を分析するデータ活用から、未来を作るデータ活用へ

IDEOでは、まず人にとっての価値・有用性を軸にアイデアの方向性を探求し、方向が定まったらその後コンセプトをより具体化していきながら、同時に技術的な実現可能性とビジネスとしての持続可能性も満たすような設計を模索していく。

「新しいものを生み出す」フェーズにおけるデータ活用というのは、データ分析を生業にしている人からすれば邪道的で“変”かもしれないが、大事なのは、なるべく短期間・低コストで問いと仮説の精度を高めていきながら、効果的に有用性、実現可能性、持続可能性についての解像度を高めていき、よりよい結果に繋げることだ。クリエイティビティをもって臨めば、データ活用にはいろいろなアプローチが有り得るのである。

今回紹介した事例がすべてではないし、状況によって全く異なるアプローチの仕方があるだろうが、可能性はまだまだ広い。実データを分析することももちろん大事だが、データがまだ存在しない「新しいものを生み出す」フェーズにおいても、工夫次第でデータからいろいろな示唆が得られる。データがまだ存在しないからと、そこで思考停止になってこのチャンスを逃してしまってはもったいない。少しの想像力と柔軟な姿勢を持ってデータを活用することで、新しい未来の可能性が切り拓かれる。

世の中の変化のスピードが速くなり、いつどこから自社の事業を脅かす存在が出現するか読めない昨今の状況において、企業はますます「イノベーション」を求めている。その中で、新商品の開発や新規事業の創出を仕事にしている方も多いだろう。こうした仕事はつまり、「新しいものを生み出す」仕事だ。近年トレンドになっているDXと呼ばれる取り組みも、その一つといえるだろう。こうした仕事は、どれも不確実性が高く、前例がないことも多い。

一方で、仕事の中には「今あるものをより良くする」仕事もある。つまり既存のビジネスやサービスに改善を重ねあげて大きく育てていく仕事だ。こうしたフェーズにおいては、データ活用の重要性が高まっている。既存のビジネスを運用していく中で生まれるデータを蓄積し、そのデータを分析、活用することで、意思決定の質を高めたり、新たなソリューションを作ったりすることは、すでに多くの企業が導入しているし、今後も拡がっていくと思われる。こうした取り組みの延長にあるAIも、日々普及度が高まっている。

One of those conversations was with the country of Wales, and in particular Sophie Howe, the Future Generations Commissioner for Wales, and her team. Described by the Guardian as the “world’s first Minister of the Unborn,” Sophie’s role is to provide independent advice to the government and other public bodies in Wales on delivering social, economic, environmental, and cultural wellbeing for current and future generations. She’s a committed  advocate for the voices of young people and, in particular, for tapping into youth culture as a tool for creating societal change.

Sophie invited me to take part in an event she was hosting at  (COP26), the UN Climate Change Conference in Glasgow late last year, and so off to Scotland I went. My mother, who passed away a few years ago, was from Glasgow, so returning there was bittersweet. I had not been back for over 50 years. I hardly recognized it.

To enter the conference itself, you were granted a pass to one of two “zones”—the Blue Zone or the Green Zone—loosely bundled as policy and culture. My role was to represent government and creativity in equal parts, so I was granted access to both. The contrast was startling.

The Blue Zone teemed with heads of government and policymakers. Everyone in skinny suits and pointy shoes. Cohorts walking with tremendous urgency, discussing their “key talking points.” I attended a few sessions—lots of clip art of globes, lots of numbers, lots of rhetoric, lots of the same old same old. Death by mathematics. I left the sessions thinking they were necessary, but overwhelmingly incremental, data-driven, and to be frank, massively unimaginative.

The Green Zone was the unplugged, acoustic version of the conference. Even outside, the energy was different. As I walked in, a lady dressed as Evita, sang“Don't feed the greed, Argentina. The truth is you give them nature. All through your wildlife, your green resilience. Just keep your glaciers. And save the planet!” This zone  was full of color and life, installations of melting ice, and a whiteboard entitled, “What is The Feminist Future We Are Fighting For?” filled with wishes, poetry, and art. It had a kind of plaid-and-braids Taylor Swift “Evermore” vibe. I heard the participants of this zone referred to as “youth with claws.”

Back to Wales. I’d  been invited by the Welsh team to moderate a conversation alongside their Poet-in-Residence for the Future Generations Commissioner of Wales, Taylor Edmonds. She was young and filled with heart and energy. They paid homage to a deep-rooted Welsh tradition called “Chairing of the Bard'' that dates back to an 1176 Welsh storytelling festival wherein the Chief Bard tells stories and reads poems about the future. Edmonds’ chair, made for the occasion, was carved with the future hopes of school children. We called the event “Climate, in the Visceral Sense.” Before she spoke, we screened a short film, “Ynys Blastig Blot-Euwedd,” made by Welsh school children, about a girl who befriends and then loses Mother Nature. Then Taylor composed and recited a poem on the spot, called “Riverbank Guardian.” It ended thusly:

Our town was built around the Oak Tree,
her underground map of roots,
her peeling bark, her curling branches.
Each day I walk to the riverbank,
standing guard, my still sanctuary
of ground where in Spring,
acorns will sprout green.

Ask yourself – will your great grandchildren
dip their feet to the low river of summers
and walk the streets you walk today?

As I walked around the Green Zone I was struck by the fact that so many businesses had a presence—IKEA, Sainsbury’s, many others. They’d built artful exhibits out of cardboard and other natural materials; there were posters inviting participation, seeds to be taken away and planted, pledges to sign, stories to carry with you. It felt hopeful, modern, joyful even.

I kept thinking to myself, why have we set up this polarity between the Blue and Green Zones? One math, the other poetry. To understand the complex systems challenge of climate change, and start a global movement to address it, don’t we need both?

A New Zone. Let’s call this aspirational plane The Turquoise Zone—a place where the logic of blue meets the imagination of green. Looking toward COP27 in Egypt and COP28 in the U.A.E., I’m hoping for a more holistic, integrated approach: imbuing the science, rigor, and public and private sector leverage with what makes us feel alive—music, art, movement, poetry.

This new thinking will help us design events that address the climate crisis and the movement it is giving rise to. The language of this plane is dynamic, sometimes lashingly so. It contains a million colors. The Turquoise Zone turns the flatness of linear and binary thinking into something immersive and incandescent—azure, glinting, shimmering, alive in its depths—like the ocean itself.

As human-centered designers, our mathematicians and poets know that durable climate solutions must appeal to both the head and the heart. Would you join us in bringing the brightest blue and green thinking together to create a vibrant turquoise future? We’d love to hear from you.

https://cantwait.ideo.com/climate

After years of Covid darkness, I was fortunate enough to be able to spend the end of last year traveling around and talking to people about design and its role in the future of social welfare, business, and issues related to climate.

I help organizations cut through complexity by shaping how they show up, through brand strategy, identity, and storytelling.

Working at the intersection of brand and business, I bring an editorial eye and a bias toward making—turning ideas into tangible experiences that people can understand, trust, and believe in.

My work spans government, healthcare, financial services, media, and consumer goods, from launching Gen Z-focused ventures to building innovation labs and reimagining legacy brands. I relish moments of ambiguity and enjoy translating across teams, perspectives, and priorities to move ideas forward.

I started my career in editorial and digital design, shaping cross-platform experiences and identity systems in publishing and agency environments. That foundation still shapes how I work today: I’m detail-oriented, collaborative, and overreliant on the Oxford comma. I hold a BFA in Visual Communication from the School of the Art Institute of Chicago.

For 25 years, I've asked the same question: Who does this design exclude—and what are we going to do about it?

My work spans human-centered strategy, inclusive design, and qualitative research, with clients ranging from Microsoft, Google, and Verizon to the National Science Foundation, and San Francisco Unified School District.

Before IDEO, I taught elementary school in East Palo Alto and spent a decade doing design work with social service organizations—where I learned firsthand what it costs people when systems are built without them in mind.

I am currently writing User Error, a nonfiction book about digital access and the design decisions behind it. I live in Oakland, California.

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My expertise spans brand, communication, and product design across tech, education, the arts, and social impact.

I believe great work demands both high-level vision and obsessive attention to detail, and only happens through collaboration.

I bring an inclusive, hands-on approach and a deep understanding of business, which enables me to consistently deliver excellence while always asking why.

Before joining IDEO, I worked at the brand firms Pentagram and VSA Partners. I began my career as a designer, leading teams at the School of the Art Institute of Chicago and the Milwaukee Art Museum. I hold an MFA in graphic design from Maryland Institute College of Art and a BFA in communication design from the Milwaukee Institute of Art & Design, and have taught at some of the best design schools in the US.

I am responsible for IDEO’s long-term success in China and working with clients to use design as a tool to enable growth. Specifically, I have helped Chinese companies design holistic brand solutions through the development of their products, communication, services, and innovation teams, and I have helped multinationals expand their presence and influence in China.

I advise global leaders on developing China-led innovation and capabilities.

In over 15 years in IDEO Shanghai, I have worked on projects that use design to elevate the quality of the experience of healthcare products and services, streamline processes that increase productivity, create spaces and programs that promote and enable inclusive communities, and build next generation mobility solutions that are planet-positive.

Before joining IDEO, I worked at Philips Electronics and the Electrolux Group in Italy, the Netherlands, and Singapore on a number of breakthrough commercial products. I am a member of the Young President Organization in Shanghai.