Midea, one of China’s largest appliance manufacturers, wanted to identify growth opportunities in the domestic consumer market, while focusing on people’s cultural beliefs around health and well-being. During the course of the project, IDEO found that Midea could play a key role in building a healthier nation.

The team set out to design potential future products for Tong (“through, whole, and to understand”) that are built around the basic themes of eating, breathing, and being: an easy-to-use, hassle-free herbal tea dispenser, an air balancer that improves and balances the quality of air in the home, and a body-balancing mobile phone app that encourages users to rebalance their body condition where needed, through movements created with the Chinese philosophies of well-being in mind.

The Tong project was featured extensively in the press, and opened further conversations with Midea about creating new value and extending into new markets.

Put food on the table or keep the furnace running on a frigid day? It’s an unfortunate choice many low-income families in Flint, Michigan, face.

To help customers in Flint and other Michigan towns stay on top of their utility bills and better understand the relationship between their energy consumption and the resulting costs, Consumers Energy partnered with IDEO and utility assistance provider The Heat and Warmth Fund (THAW) to create an innovative pilot billing program called Clear Control in late 2013.

The pilot was designed with three major human-centered changes to the traditional utility experience:

• Instead of monthly bills, participants received two bills per month. Shorter billing periods allowed for smaller, more frequent payments, helping customers match available funds with their ability to pay.
• Daily text updates on energy usage and bill amounts kept consumption top of mind.
• Consumers Energy offered personalized, in-home audits to help customers make low-cost, high-impact changes to their energy bills.

A year later, the results of the pilot are energizing. Clear Control participants accumulated no new debt, while the control group owed $300; pilot customers used 20 percent less electricity, reducing their bills by $200 per year; and 95 percent of participants paid their bills in full and on time, compared with 35 percent in the control group. The utility company simultaneously benefited by avoiding arrearages, late-payment fees, and shutoffs. Consumers plans to incorporate Clear Control lessons into its overall energy assistance program design and development moving forward.

"It’s no longer ‘me’ against ‘them’—now it’s ‘us,’" said one Clear Control participant.

In 1980, Apple asked IDEO to develop a mouse for their radical new computer, the Lisa. Previous attempts at mouse design, by Douglas Englebart and Xerox PARC, yielded results that were too expensive and hard to make. The Apple mouse needed to be more reliable and less than 10 percent of the cost of the earlier versions.

To start, the design team created a cheaper, much-improved mechanism that would operate the mouse, and found that a complex, plastic "ribcage" would hold the pieces together. The team similarly tested and refined the mouse’s other key components, from the audible and tactile click of the button to the rubberized coating on the ball. A record turntable spun for days, logging “mouse miles” to check the reliability of the electromechanical assembly.

The resulting mouse proved mechanically and economically sound and was changed only slightly when adapted for use with the first Macintosh computer. The basic mechanism design is used in virtually all mechanical mouses produced to date.

Food is the heart of most cultures. In China, one of the oldest cultures in the world, food is central to family gatherings and celebrations. It’s what binds people, a tangible way of showing love and respect. But in recent years, the Chinese food industry has suffered from concerns around safety.

Two siblings, Harn and Anmao Sun, set out on an ambitious venture: to create a trusted source of food in China and, by setting an example, to instigate a movement around conscious farming practices. The American-born entrepreneurs launched Hunter Gatherer, a restaurant and retail food space built around a transparent supply chain, from farm to table to grocery shelves. The venture is based on growing and serving what they call real food: The ingredients are chemical-free and come from known and trusted sources—food they’d eat themselves. The purpose of the venture is simple: to serve people real food that is their right.

Having studied and worked in the US, Harn and Anmao grew accustomed to browsing farmers markets on Saturday mornings or picking up a burrito at Chipotle. But when they returned to China, they were unsure about the safety of the food they were eating.

“In China, you wouldn’t go to a food stand, because you’d be concerned about the ingredients,” Anmao said. “You can’t take the safety for granted.”

Hunter Gatherer’s very existence challenges bedrock assumptions about how food is produced in China. A long and depressing list of scandals—milk contaminated with melamine, pork produced from diseased pigs, used cooking oil repackaged and sold as new—has rocked the public trust.

“In China, agriculture is going through a huge change,” Anmao said. “In the US, agriculture operations are regulated. Farmers’ practices are regulated. If they use pesticides, there are limits because these farmers understand that once a certain threshold is hit, additional pesticides will not yield more crops. But in China, pesticide use came about 30 years after the US and Europe, and because of a lack of full understanding, farmers in China incorrectly operate under the assumption that more pesticides means more crop yields. Also, with over 250 million farmers in China, it becomes immensely difficult to properly regulate everyone.”

New Ventures

Harn and Anmao wanted to restore trust in the simple act of eating in China, and they came to IDEO to build a scalable business based on that vision. This was essentially a startup, a shared commitment between IDEO and Hunter Gatherer.

“I’ve lived in Shanghai for the past seven years, and as a relatively active and health-conscious person, I’ve had to invest quite a bit of time in finding food that I trust,” said Charles Hayes, managing director of IDEO Shanghai. “That investment has been both in the time it takes to research the sources of ingredients but also a literal investment in paying a high price for imported food just for that extra peace of mind.”

Anmao and Harn took up residence in the IDEO Shanghai offices to incubate their business. Together with IDEO designers, they tested packaging, cooked countless meals, and found ways to introduce unfamiliar ingredients to Chinese consumers. They discussed different concepts of lunch and dinner, and how notions of freshness in Chinese culture might affect cold-storage systems. In IDEO’s prototyping kitchen, the teams tested all manner of different foods, flavors, colors, mixes, and price points, and they brought consumers in to try them out. IDEO designers, along with the founding team, also worked on the brand and positioning of what would eventually become the Hunter Gatherer enterprise—its location, human resources, and marketing strategies.

As the restaurant concept came together, finding the right food sources had to be addressed. Traditional agriculture couldn’t be trusted; organic certifications were available on the black market, and safety protocols around chemical use were nonexistent. Anmao and Harn decided to invest in their own farms. They met with farmers, asked questions about their methods, and walked in the fields to see for themselves. Eventually they settled on two plots of land outside Shanghai and began developing more than 80 different crops to be used in the restaurant.

From Seed to Table

When it came time to find the right space for the first location, Anmao and Harn discovered an open, airy storefront on Anfu Road in Shanghai’s tree-lined former French Concession area. They designed and built a retail space and kitchen, and along with IDEO designers, they trained the staff and organized workflows. The staff set the tables with Mason jars filled with flowers, hung photographs of the farmers who grew the food, and put up a sign that showcases the percentage of vegetables coming directly from the Hunter Gatherer farms, already more than 70 percent in less than a year after opening.

Customers can shop for fresh vegetables, locally sourced and imported canned and jarred goods, bins of cereal, freshly made smoothies, artisan sauces, and exotic chocolates. Upstairs, they can feast on delicious dishes in the homey restaurant.

Reviews have been glowing. One customer raved about the machine that grinds fresh nuts. Another loved the open space, the “good vibes,” and the refreshing cucumber water. Young people go there on dates, and families return for the delicious menu variety.

The convivial space has blossomed into more than just a restaurant and grocery store. It’s become a gathering place of sorts, both for the community and for partners who share the same vision. Farmers and food purveyors are invited to showcase their products at seasonal events and to mingle with customers and share recipes and stories.

“Hunter Gatherer has come to symbolize a kind of lifestyle the Chinese people have been looking for,” said Eugene Lin, an IDEO business designer. “A place they can enjoy hanging out with friends, as well as a movement and mission they can stand behind.”

A Digital Future

This is just the beginning of the venture. The plan is to open 40 more locations throughout China. But the vision for Hunter Gatherer’s growth is bigger than brick-and-mortar restaurants—where the business will truly scale is in the digital space. Eventually, the plan is to launch a Hunter Gatherer online grocery store from which anyone can buy food grown from trusted sources.

“We have to create trust with the consumer. It’s the most difficult and most valuable thing to do in China, especially with food,” Anmao said. “Our brick-and-mortar locations will establish that increased trust. Then we can go online and grow the idea to the rest of the country.”

Will Hunter Gatherer have a hand in changing the way that the world’s most populous nation thinks about food? Its principles are already spreading, from neighboring farmers adopting more sustainable planting methods, to a growing market for products like wine.

But the true sign of success will be almost invisible—the moment when an increase in demand will result in safe food for everyone and when real food becomes commonplace.

But we'd be fools to claim that we can always see what's coming around the bend. Never trust anyone who says they can predict the future.

Nevertheless, we have launched ourselves into the unknown for decades. Joining a long history of science fiction, this is an exercise in speculative design, where we build on early signals we're picking up and ask, “What if?” At times, our speculation about the future has come across as a little too naive and niche, like when we proposed stamping fruit with the full FDA nutrition label or suggested a fixie-inspired walker for senior hipsters. But when we’ve set our sights on what tomorrow’s humans might want from our clients, our portfolio of the future has been startlingly prescient.

In 2005, two years before Steve Jobs announced the iPhone, a short film we made with Intel showcased the hyperconnected, hypermobile, on-demand lifestyle we all know now.

That same year, we created a series of shorts for HBO foretelling a world of personalized streaming content—well over a decade before binging our favorite shows became standard fare.

In 2010, our exploration of the future of the book anticipated the need to verify the legitimacy of sources on social media platforms such as Facebook and Twitter.

These predictions may seem easy to come up with in hindsight, and in one sense that is true. When you pair the exponential power of technology (Moore’s Law) with evergreen human needs, it leads to logical conclusions. The harder part is making such foresight tangible.

That’s where design becomes a valuable tool.

IKEA, which has its own future-facing research and design lab, Space10, understands the power of tangibility. We partnered with the company in 2015 to imagine the future kitchen. The final exhibit, staged at EXPO Milano, anticipated an augmented reality in which screens and data are no longer confined to devices. More than an exhibition, the prototype served as a strategic roadmap for integrating multi-sensory digital content into a built environment and helped IKEA build an organizational belief in, and understanding of, this technological shift.

We’ve delved into the future of automobility, manufacturing, connected intimacy, the workplace, blockchain, and artificial intelligence. We’ve also used design fiction to explore complex human experiences like aging, citizenship, and time. These “What-Ifs” aren't an art school indulgence. Rather, they are queries about what world we want to inhabit and what choices we need to make today in order to get there.

While we don’t believe our era is any more exceptional than the next, the choices we are making today feel more consequential. We are facing global economic contraction, the explosion of artificial intelligence, and a developing climate crisis that scientists say could cross an irreversible threshold by the end of this decade.

The urgency to ready our clients, ourselves, and everyone for the Climate Era has been a longtime obsession. In 2017 we designed an exhibition called “Never Finished” to illustrate the principles of a circular economy. We reimagined makeup, food packaging, sneakers, and electronic devices as part of regenerative systems. A few years later, this fiction became a beacon for global fashion leader H&M, whose pursuit of a circular future has involved eliminating plastics from its consumer packaging.

But even the most on-the-nose prediction about what the future will bring can go sideways. In 1997, Kodak asked us to create a consumer experience for digital photography. Using that era’s available technology, we built a fully working digital camera with an integrated screen menu. The working prototype was nearly twice the size of what cameras would become, but it established the fundamental experience of digital photography that we use today.

While the team at Kodak hoped to design a pioneering new product, they ultimately didn’t have the internal alignment to move forward. Instead, they continued investing in film, a choice that ultimately proved to be a losing bet.

The takeaway: Even the most beautiful speculative design won’t sway hearts if the leaders of an organization don’t have the ambition or desire to invest in a better future—and we don’t mean just a profitable one. “What if?” is the beginning of a design-driven process to understand what choices we need to make today in order to create the future we want.

While the contracting economy, climate change, and systemic bias can feel insurmountable, we remain optimistic. Over the coming year, we will be sharing a series of design fictions that portray a world in which we got things right.

The questions we are asking—“What if everything is electrified and we have abundant energy?” and “What is the future of ordinary data?” and “How do we unleash the creative capacity of the next generation?”—are shorthand for deeper investigations into how we redesign consumer goods, healthcare, AI, and education.

Turning these questions into experiences so that others can visualize, feel, and participate in a better world is an essential practice of design and, for businesses that want to be here in 2033, the only way to stay relevant.

We will begin each of these design fictions, which will roll out over the coming year, with a letter:

“Dear Future, we designed this for you…”

We may never meet those born 10 or 20 or 30 years from now who will live out these visions (or something that looks quite different), but that doesn’t mean we’re off the hook. We are accountable to one another and stewards of a fragile planet. In 10 years, every business will have become a design business because every business will have had to change. And every person will have a hand in designing our future.

*One sentence in this article was written by ChatGPT after giving it the prompt “Slogan for a campaign about designing the future.” Can you guess which line?

—

Hero image: Magic Mirror, an augmented reality dressing room designed for Prada in 2003 in partnership with OMA.

We designers are optimistic to a fault. We believe we can build something better and will take great leaps of faith to prove it.

I grew up in Singapore, the ultimate small-but-mighty island at the tip of the Malaysian Peninsula. As I grew up, I watched it transform from jungle kampongs and a river so dirty that it glowed neon green, into the ultimate modern metropolis.

Singaporeans now enjoy some of the best quality of life in an integrated society. It is home to the world's best airport and has become a sophisticated financial hub, and even made history in the universe of gastronomy, receiving the first ever Michelin star for street food. The river itself is now so clean that dolphins and fish have returned in droves.

Fast forward 50 or so years. My partner and I have found ourselves living in Iceland for the last three years, the literal polar opposite of Singapore, but equally impressive. You need only pick up any quality-of-life index to find Iceland near the top of the safest, most egalitarian, most tolerant civil societies in the world. The country has taken a leading-edge approach to climate science, with bold plans for its domestic geothermal energy and the electrification of its transport system.

To be sure, it’s a rather isolated island with a population under 400,000 in the middle of the Arctic Sea. Nonetheless, Iceland was led with a calm and steady hand through the COVID-19 pandemic, achieving a 91% vaccination rate in record time. It’s a society that is well read, well informed, and one in which citizens revere nature, considering themselves guardians of the wild environs they've inherited.

A word I often use to describe life here is “sane”. Icelanders are pragmatic, do not hyperbolize or dramatize, and work together to achieve collective goals. Icelandic businesses feel it is important to do their part, too. The national flagship airline, Icelandair, recently announced that they will decarbonize all internal flights by the end of the decade, the first national carrier in the world to do so.

In the years between inhabiting these two islands, I have lived, studied and worked around the world, spending considerable time in Norway, Denmark, Finland, New Zealand and the UAE, all of which play at a much more significant scale on the world stage than their geographic mass would suggest. It helps that all of these nations are well led, with crisp, long-term plans and goals. And it is no coincidence to me that in many cases they are led by women.

Other small nations that I watch from a distance, like Estonia, are digital pioneers, transforming an antiquated governmental system into an e-Residency – their human-centred, digital citizenship program. Way back in 2014, Estonians described themselves as a “start-up country”. Rwanda has followed suit with similar initiatives: one-stop digital services designed to incentivize small commercial enterprises and entrepreneurs to launch businesses there. Finally, we must shine a light on Ukraine which, whilst in the midst of war, are making plans to regenerate themselves, building a greener, more modern society out of the ashes and carnage.

So, what do these Small Awesome Nations (SANs for short) have in common, and what do they have to teach us all?

SANs act faster: COVID-19 taught us all, especially governments, that cumbersome bureaucracy and endless consensus-building wasn’t just unnecessary, it was life-threatening. To be able to quickly assemble task forces as information came in and cut through red tape was critical. Smaller countries mobilized at record pace, and in many cases got essential supplies to the frontlines faster. Taiwan, China, for example, immediately activated contact tracing and phone tracking to make sure that those in quarantine were actually fulfilling their end of the deal. The fact that Taiwan's vice president is an epidemiologist didn’t hurt.

SANs talk like people, not governments: To me, this is critical. Early in the crisis, the Norwegian prime minister, Erna Solberg, broadcasted a specific COVID-19 address to the children of Norway, saying: “Many children are finding this scary. I can understand that. It’s quite OK to be a bit scared when so many big things are happening at once.” Taking a direct, matter-of-fact tone, she assured them that their parents would likely be fine, but acknowledged that they might miss birthday parties and life at home would be “a bit boring.” New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Arden declared on national TV that the Tooth Fairy and the Easter Bunny were both considered “essential workers” in New Zealand, but that they might also be at home, “tending to their own baby bunnies.”

SANs value the perspectives of the next generation: The human-first, sure-handed leadership of both Solberg and Arden is especially compelling in a time when so many young people express apathy about politicians who “don’t speak to us.” Addressing that lack of engagement, the UAE government hired 23-year-old Shamma bint Suhail Faris Mazrui as its first minister of state for youth affairs in 2016. At the time, she was the youngest serving minister in the world. She is now one of the most outspoken advocates for youth voices and perspectives, ensuring her generation and the next are shaping government programs and policies. When asked at Davos why the ideas of Emirati youth were so important to her government, she said: “Hopelessness results when youth are not seen as resources, and apathy results when they’re not seen as assets.”

Then there is Sophie Howe, Wales’s first future generations commissioner. Described by The Guardian as the world’s first “Minister for the Unborn”, Sophie’s role is to provide independent advice to the government and other public bodies on delivering social, economic, environmental, and cultural wellbeing for current and future generations. She’s a committed champion of the next generation and, in particular, for tapping into youth culture as a resource for creating societal change. I was part of an event she created at COP26 in Glasgow where they brought together youth with poetry, music, conversation and politics. It was a potent mix, more akin to a Taylor Swift concert than a governmental think tank, and I watched the young audience members' eyes glow with pride at the end, feeling both spoken to and heard.

What's become clear (and really exciting) to me is that these Small Awesome Nations are gathering momentum and growing in influence. These nimble countries have, in many ways, responded to the conditions of the larger world with its attendant chaos by reinventing traditional ways of doing things. And in the process of disrupting themselves, they’ve learned valuable lessons that their bigger cousins would do well to follow as they look toward the future.

If there was to be an actual League of SANs, what would you want its mandate to be? Which country would get your vote as a founding member and why? We'd love to hear from you in the comments.

Republished from the World Economic Forum's Agenda

For as long as I can remember, I’ve been obsessed with small countries. Specifically, small nations with superpowers that larger nations covet.

一般的に「新しいものを生み出す」仕事は、いわゆる企画職、デザイナー職などの職種の人が行い、データアナリストやデータサイエンティストと呼ばれる人たちは、事業が回り始めデータが溜まってきた「今あるものをより良くする」タイミングで価値を発揮することが多いのではないだろうか。新しいものを生み出そうとしている段階ではまだデータもなく、そこでのデータ活用はイメージしにくいだろう。

しかし、実は、このフェーズにおいても、データを分析し活用することに知見を持つ人と協業することで、よりよいモノを生むことにつながる場合がある。IDEOでデータサイエンティストとして働く私の経験も踏まえ、新しいものを生み出す仕事におけるデータ活用の可能性について紹介したい。

データを通して人のニーズを理解する

IDEOのプロジェクトでは、デザインリサーチという手法を用い、人にとって高い価値や有用性を持つアイデアを探るのが一般的である。インタビューやシャドーイング（ユーザーの生活環境に身を置き、存在を意識させないように観察すること）など、定性的なアプローチを通して、「狭く深く」人やその人が生活している環境と向き合い、インサイトを見つけ出す。元来、このプロセスにおいてデータを活用することは、今までIDEOでもあまり取り組んでこなかったことであった。しかし、実はデザインリサーチのプロセスにおいてもデータは有効な使い方があることがわかってきており、近年データサイエンスも手法として取り入れる例が増えている。

データの使い所の１つ目は、定性的なアプローチに、データによる定量的な観点を取り入れることだ。例えば、過去にIDEOで乳がん患者と医療従事者両者向けのサービスのコンセプトを作るプロジェクトに取り組んだ際、定性リサーチを通して患者さんと医療従事者双方にとってどういったコンセプトにニーズがありそうか、いくつかの方向性が見えてきていた。しかし、どのコンセプトも、医療従事者に現在の業務の流れを少し変更してもらう必要があるものであった。日々忙しい医療従事者に業務の流れの変更を強いるのはハードルが高い。そこで、コンセプトごとのハードルはどのくらい高いのか、そしてそのハードルを超える工夫としてどんなものが考えられるか、ということが次の焦点になった。ここで、チームは定量的なリサーチを組み込むことにした。アンケート調査を行い、医師、看護師、薬剤師の三者が、我々が考えていたそれぞれのコンセプトを導入するとした際にどれだけ負担を感じるかを調査したのだ。

その結果、「コンセプトAを進めるときには看護師の協力を得ることが鍵になる。看護師の協力を得るためにはどのような仕立てが必要か？」、「コンセプトBは、導入をスタートすること自体の負荷は低いが、継続的に運用していくとなると負荷が高い。継続の負荷を減らすためにはどのようにしたらよいか？」といった形で、定性調査での学びに加えて、また別の角度から理解を深めることができたと同時に、新たな仮説や問いを立て、そこからまた次の定性調査でリサーチすべきことを練ることができた。一般的には、定性リサーチで得られた知見や仮説を定量的に裏付ける一方通行の進め方が多いと思うが、重要なのは、振り子のように定性と定量を行ったり来たりしながらアイデアや仮説をどんどん発展させていくことだ。

２つ目は、データは定性リサーチに赴く際の一つの武器にできるということ。IDEOで、農家に向けた経営支援サービスを開発していた際、畑で得られたデータを、農家の経営をサポートする形に変換し、可視化するサービスの企画・デザインを行っていた。農家にデータを入力してもらう部分のUXについては概ね固まってきていた一方、どのようにそのデータを農家さんにとって有用な形で見せることができるかが定まっていなかった。そこで用いたのが、紙とペンを使ったデータビジュアライゼーションである。取得したデータを可視化する方法のアイデアを考えられるだけ考え、それらのグラフをすべて紙に描き、農家さんのところに持っていった。一枚一枚グラフを見せながら話を聞くと、どれが有益でどれがそうでもないかを教えてもらえたとともに、なぜそうなのかを深堀りして聞くことができた。サービスがまだ存在していなければデータも存在しない。分析するデータがなければデータ活用などできない、と思うかもしれないが、このように想像をもとに可視化されたデータを見せるだけでも、人はいろいろな反応を見せてくれる。

サービスの体験にデータの蓄積と活用を埋め込む

前節でも紹介したデザインリサーチの過程を通じて人のニーズや人が抱える問題の理解が深まったあと、そのソリューションを考えるフェーズに入る。このときに、大きなテーマとして比較的頻繁に登場するのが、「感覚的に物事を判断することが常態化していて、それにより様々な機会を逸している」ということだ。細かいニュアンスはその時々や業界によって違えど、特にtoBのビジネスアイデアを考えているときに、この問題はよく発生する。

例えば、以前IDEOで飲食チェーン向けの経営支援SaaSのデザインを手掛けるプロジェクトがあった。リサーチを通して浮かび上がってきたのは、本部と店舗のコミュニケーションと連携の問題。現場では短期的な売上達成を目指すためにその場の勘と経験の判断でオペレーションが回っている一方、本部ではその実態を正確に把握できずに売上と日報を確認する程度のことしかできず、組織として過去を振り返りながら次の施策に活かしていくということができていなかった。連絡方法も、FAX、メール、電話、LINEなどいろいろな手段がバラバラに使われている状況だった。

ここでIDEOチームはさまざまなアイデアのスケッチやプロトタイプを作り飲食業界で働く人々に見てもらいながらアイデアを練っていったが、最終的なコンセプトは、飲食店で発生するさまざまなデータの蓄積と分析を自動的に行い、インサイトを抽出し、それをもとに店舗で行う施策の発案、実行、振り返りを本部と店舗間で行いやすくするプラットフォームだった。コミュニケーションの問題をそのまま解消しようとするコミュニケーションツールではなく、データを軸にしたコンセプトになっていったのは、データにいくつかのポテンシャルが秘められていることがわかったからだ。それは、人間が感覚的にやっていて気づかない部分を可視化して気付かせてあげる力、関係者間で同じものを見させて認識の差を埋める力、過去を自信をもって振り返ることで次なる施策に向け背中を押してくれる力、などだ。これに限らず、データはうまく使えば、あらゆる形で人の行動を変える力を持っている。いかに自然な形で人にデータの記録や蓄積をしてもらうか、そしていかに自然な形でそれを使ってアクションをとってもらうかをうまくデザインするのは難しいが、成功すればそのサービスを非常にユニークで魅力的なものにしてくれる。

データを通じて未来のシナリオを想像する

リサーチを通して人々のニーズがわかり、それらをコンセプトの形に昇華し、さらにプロトタイプを通して具体的なサービスの形やUXが固まっていくと、次第に議論の焦点はビジネスの持続性の観点に移っていくことが多い。新しいサービスやプロダクトの開発とその市場投入には大きなコストがかかるため、決裁者に投資判断を仰ぐ際には、マーケット規模はどれくらいか、ターゲットは誰か、収益性はどれくらい見込めるのかなど、いろいろなことを問われる。こうした場合、担当者はネット上の記事やシンクタンクなどの調査レポートを参照しながら、仮定に仮定を重ねてそれらしい数字を作って説得を試みることが多いのではないだろうか。ここでもデータをうまく使うことで、事業の持続性に関して考えを深めることが可能だ。

IDEOが以前、別の農業系のプロジェクトを手掛けていたときだ。サービスのデザインが大枠固まってきた段階で議論の焦点になったのは、「ユーザ数、売上の推移はどうなるのか」「いつ頃から利益が出てくるのか」「データはどれくらい溜まっていくのか。それを使ってビジネスを新たに考えるに足る量はいつごろ溜まるのか」「カスタマーサポートにはどれくらいのコストがかかるのか」などといったビジネス方面のものだった。誰もやったことがないので正確にはわかるはずもなく、なんとかそれらしい仮定を置きながらもっともらしい数字を出そうとしたが、どうしても根拠が弱く、空中戦の議論に陥ってしまっていた。

そこで、私はいくつかのイメージしやすいパラメータをもとに、ユーザ数の推移をシミュレートし、可視化するものを作った。ここでいうパラメータとは例えば、「営業による月間新規顧客獲得数」「口コミがどれくらい発生するか（一月あたり何人のユーザにつき一人の新規ユーザが獲得できるか）」「サービス利用開始1ヶ月の間で何%の確率で解約するか」といったようなものである（実際にはもっと多数のパラメータが用意してある）。こういったパラメータの値に応じて、擬似的にユーザを生成して、ユーザごとにいつからいつまでどれくらいサービスを利用していたかを確率的に決定し、それを集計することで数年後の未来でそのサービスがどの程度の規模で使われているかをイメージしやすくした。

これにより決裁者に向けて、より説得力をもって事業計画を伝えられるという効果はあったが、最終的に算出された値が正しいかどうかは実は重要ではない。それよりも興味深かったのは、この取り組みにより事業計画に対するチームの考えと議論が一段深まったことだった。ユーザ数や売上を直接考えるよりも、それらをイメージしやすいパラメータに分解し、それらの積み上げで数字を作ると、よりリアルに感じられる数字になる。この「リアルに感じられる」というのが大事で、これが人の想像力を刺激し、未来をより具体的にイメージするきっかけになる。そこから、例えば「口コミを生むにはUXのどの部分が大事なのか」「カスタマーサポートに電話がかかりすぎないようにする工夫はどのようなものが考えられるか」など、より具体的な問いが次々と生まれ、ビジネスの観点での検討がぐっと前に進んだ。フェイクなデータを作ってそれでビジネスの議論をする、というのは普通の「データサイエンティスト」だったらやらないことだが、目的を「問いと仮説の精度を上げて思考を前に進めること」とおけば、こういうのもアリなのである。

過去を分析するデータ活用から、未来を作るデータ活用へ

IDEOでは、まず人にとっての価値・有用性を軸にアイデアの方向性を探求し、方向が定まったらその後コンセプトをより具体化していきながら、同時に技術的な実現可能性とビジネスとしての持続可能性も満たすような設計を模索していく。

「新しいものを生み出す」フェーズにおけるデータ活用というのは、データ分析を生業にしている人からすれば邪道的で“変”かもしれないが、大事なのは、なるべく短期間・低コストで問いと仮説の精度を高めていきながら、効果的に有用性、実現可能性、持続可能性についての解像度を高めていき、よりよい結果に繋げることだ。クリエイティビティをもって臨めば、データ活用にはいろいろなアプローチが有り得るのである。

今回紹介した事例がすべてではないし、状況によって全く異なるアプローチの仕方があるだろうが、可能性はまだまだ広い。実データを分析することももちろん大事だが、データがまだ存在しない「新しいものを生み出す」フェーズにおいても、工夫次第でデータからいろいろな示唆が得られる。データがまだ存在しないからと、そこで思考停止になってこのチャンスを逃してしまってはもったいない。少しの想像力と柔軟な姿勢を持ってデータを活用することで、新しい未来の可能性が切り拓かれる。

世の中の変化のスピードが速くなり、いつどこから自社の事業を脅かす存在が出現するか読めない昨今の状況において、企業はますます「イノベーション」を求めている。その中で、新商品の開発や新規事業の創出を仕事にしている方も多いだろう。こうした仕事はつまり、「新しいものを生み出す」仕事だ。近年トレンドになっているDXと呼ばれる取り組みも、その一つといえるだろう。こうした仕事は、どれも不確実性が高く、前例がないことも多い。

一方で、仕事の中には「今あるものをより良くする」仕事もある。つまり既存のビジネスやサービスに改善を重ねあげて大きく育てていく仕事だ。こうしたフェーズにおいては、データ活用の重要性が高まっている。既存のビジネスを運用していく中で生まれるデータを蓄積し、そのデータを分析、活用することで、意思決定の質を高めたり、新たなソリューションを作ったりすることは、すでに多くの企業が導入しているし、今後も拡がっていくと思われる。こうした取り組みの延長にあるAIも、日々普及度が高まっている。

One of those conversations was with the country of Wales, and in particular Sophie Howe, the Future Generations Commissioner for Wales, and her team. Described by the Guardian as the “world’s first Minister of the Unborn,” Sophie’s role is to provide independent advice to the government and other public bodies in Wales on delivering social, economic, environmental, and cultural wellbeing for current and future generations. She’s a committed  advocate for the voices of young people and, in particular, for tapping into youth culture as a tool for creating societal change.

Sophie invited me to take part in an event she was hosting at  (COP26), the UN Climate Change Conference in Glasgow late last year, and so off to Scotland I went. My mother, who passed away a few years ago, was from Glasgow, so returning there was bittersweet. I had not been back for over 50 years. I hardly recognized it.

To enter the conference itself, you were granted a pass to one of two “zones”—the Blue Zone or the Green Zone—loosely bundled as policy and culture. My role was to represent government and creativity in equal parts, so I was granted access to both. The contrast was startling.

The Blue Zone teemed with heads of government and policymakers. Everyone in skinny suits and pointy shoes. Cohorts walking with tremendous urgency, discussing their “key talking points.” I attended a few sessions—lots of clip art of globes, lots of numbers, lots of rhetoric, lots of the same old same old. Death by mathematics. I left the sessions thinking they were necessary, but overwhelmingly incremental, data-driven, and to be frank, massively unimaginative.

The Green Zone was the unplugged, acoustic version of the conference. Even outside, the energy was different. As I walked in, a lady dressed as Evita, sang“Don't feed the greed, Argentina. The truth is you give them nature. All through your wildlife, your green resilience. Just keep your glaciers. And save the planet!” This zone  was full of color and life, installations of melting ice, and a whiteboard entitled, “What is The Feminist Future We Are Fighting For?” filled with wishes, poetry, and art. It had a kind of plaid-and-braids Taylor Swift “Evermore” vibe. I heard the participants of this zone referred to as “youth with claws.”

Back to Wales. I’d  been invited by the Welsh team to moderate a conversation alongside their Poet-in-Residence for the Future Generations Commissioner of Wales, Taylor Edmonds. She was young and filled with heart and energy. They paid homage to a deep-rooted Welsh tradition called “Chairing of the Bard'' that dates back to an 1176 Welsh storytelling festival wherein the Chief Bard tells stories and reads poems about the future. Edmonds’ chair, made for the occasion, was carved with the future hopes of school children. We called the event “Climate, in the Visceral Sense.” Before she spoke, we screened a short film, “Ynys Blastig Blot-Euwedd,” made by Welsh school children, about a girl who befriends and then loses Mother Nature. Then Taylor composed and recited a poem on the spot, called “Riverbank Guardian.” It ended thusly:

Our town was built around the Oak Tree,
her underground map of roots,
her peeling bark, her curling branches.
Each day I walk to the riverbank,
standing guard, my still sanctuary
of ground where in Spring,
acorns will sprout green.

Ask yourself – will your great grandchildren
dip their feet to the low river of summers
and walk the streets you walk today?

As I walked around the Green Zone I was struck by the fact that so many businesses had a presence—IKEA, Sainsbury’s, many others. They’d built artful exhibits out of cardboard and other natural materials; there were posters inviting participation, seeds to be taken away and planted, pledges to sign, stories to carry with you. It felt hopeful, modern, joyful even.

I kept thinking to myself, why have we set up this polarity between the Blue and Green Zones? One math, the other poetry. To understand the complex systems challenge of climate change, and start a global movement to address it, don’t we need both?

A New Zone. Let’s call this aspirational plane The Turquoise Zone—a place where the logic of blue meets the imagination of green. Looking toward COP27 in Egypt and COP28 in the U.A.E., I’m hoping for a more holistic, integrated approach: imbuing the science, rigor, and public and private sector leverage with what makes us feel alive—music, art, movement, poetry.

This new thinking will help us design events that address the climate crisis and the movement it is giving rise to. The language of this plane is dynamic, sometimes lashingly so. It contains a million colors. The Turquoise Zone turns the flatness of linear and binary thinking into something immersive and incandescent—azure, glinting, shimmering, alive in its depths—like the ocean itself.

As human-centered designers, our mathematicians and poets know that durable climate solutions must appeal to both the head and the heart. Would you join us in bringing the brightest blue and green thinking together to create a vibrant turquoise future? We’d love to hear from you.

https://cantwait.ideo.com/climate

After years of Covid darkness, I was fortunate enough to be able to spend the end of last year traveling around and talking to people about design and its role in the future of social welfare, business, and issues related to climate.

I help organizations cut through complexity by shaping how they show up, through brand strategy, identity, and storytelling.

Working at the intersection of brand and business, I bring an editorial eye and a bias toward making—turning ideas into tangible experiences that people can understand, trust, and believe in.

My work spans government, healthcare, financial services, media, and consumer goods, from launching Gen Z-focused ventures to building innovation labs and reimagining legacy brands. I relish moments of ambiguity and enjoy translating across teams, perspectives, and priorities to move ideas forward.

I started my career in editorial and digital design, shaping cross-platform experiences and identity systems in publishing and agency environments. That foundation still shapes how I work today: I’m detail-oriented, collaborative, and overreliant on the Oxford comma. I hold a BFA in Visual Communication from the School of the Art Institute of Chicago.

For 25 years, I've asked the same question: Who does this design exclude—and what are we going to do about it?

My work spans human-centered strategy, inclusive design, and qualitative research, with clients ranging from Microsoft, Google, and Verizon to the National Science Foundation, and San Francisco Unified School District.

Before IDEO, I taught elementary school in East Palo Alto and spent a decade doing design work with social service organizations—where I learned firsthand what it costs people when systems are built without them in mind.

I am currently writing User Error, a nonfiction book about digital access and the design decisions behind it. I live in Oakland, California.

‍

My expertise spans brand, communication, and product design across tech, education, the arts, and social impact.

I believe great work demands both high-level vision and obsessive attention to detail, and only happens through collaboration.

I bring an inclusive, hands-on approach and a deep understanding of business, which enables me to consistently deliver excellence while always asking why.

Before joining IDEO, I worked at the brand firms Pentagram and VSA Partners. I began my career as a designer, leading teams at the School of the Art Institute of Chicago and the Milwaukee Art Museum. I hold an MFA in graphic design from Maryland Institute College of Art and a BFA in communication design from the Milwaukee Institute of Art & Design, and have taught at some of the best design schools in the US.

I am responsible for IDEO’s long-term success in China and working with clients to use design as a tool to enable growth. Specifically, I have helped Chinese companies design holistic brand solutions through the development of their products, communication, services, and innovation teams, and I have helped multinationals expand their presence and influence in China.

I advise global leaders on developing China-led innovation and capabilities.

In over 15 years in IDEO Shanghai, I have worked on projects that use design to elevate the quality of the experience of healthcare products and services, streamline processes that increase productivity, create spaces and programs that promote and enable inclusive communities, and build next generation mobility solutions that are planet-positive.

Before joining IDEO, I worked at Philips Electronics and the Electrolux Group in Italy, the Netherlands, and Singapore on a number of breakthrough commercial products. I am a member of the Young President Organization in Shanghai.