Four methods for leading through uncertainty

Every leadership team we talk to is operating in a fog. Whether they admit it or not, that fog is affecting their risk appetite: They are delaying projects, sitting on approvals, and slashing budgets. With tariffs swinging wildly, it’s tough to plan ahead. A once-profitable offer can turn into a loss overnight. Even companies with limited exposure to physical goods can feel the ripple effects through disrupted supply chains, spooked investors, or sudden stock price drops.

It’s no wonder leaders feel paralyzed. But resilient organizations don’t wait for certainty. They aren’t afraid to rethink how they lead, focus, and design for the future. In times like these, fear can’t be your compass. It’s time to step out of preservation mode and chart a course toward where your organization needs to go.

So, how do you lead through uncertainty and regain momentum? Here are four methods we’ve been using with our clients:

1. Focus beats forecasts

When everything feels urgent, nothing gets done. Leaders must help teams focus their energy on what truly matters—starting with the courage to say no to outdated initiatives, pet projects, or business-as-usual efforts that no longer serve your strategy. Focus isn’t just about doing less, it’s about freeing up capacity and renewing energy to go bolder on the bets that will shape your future. A global retailer navigating supply chain turmoil and changing consumer habits might choose to pause low-impact projects to focus on one priority: last-mile delivery. That kind of clarity can boost fulfillment speed, earn customer trust, and drive revenue. Achieving this kind of focus means aligning across functions, reaching beyond silos, and creating momentum—even without perfect clarity. Because in moments of uncertainty, focus is the fuel that keeps progress alive.

2. Rethink where to play

Whether we’re designing a product, service, strategy, or experience, we also have to design for where, how, and at what cost it gets delivered. It’s no longer just about customer segments; it’s about navigating geopolitical risk, regulatory change, and supply constraints with agility. That requires a new playbook—one that views the landscape like a moving chessboard—where your next move depends on which pieces are in motion and how the board is evolving. Imagine a toy company facing price uncertainty, choosing to prioritize growth in regional markets closer to where they produce, and then amplifying their sustainability efforts and local stories in their marketing. Routing the right products to the right markets still matters. But so does staying light on your feet. Embracing flexibility—and even a playful mindset—can help your teams move forward with confidence, not fear, as the environment continues to shift.

3. Momentum > perfection: redesign for rapid experimentation

When the future feels uncertain, the instinct is often to pause. But pausing comes at a cost. The businesses that thrive now are those that experiment faster, not because they know exactly what will work, but because they’re willing to learn their way forward. You may not have enough certainty to build a multi-year roadmap. But you do have the tools to test, iterate, and adapt in real time. A beauty brand facing increased production costs on all of its packaging might rapidly pilot makeup refillables via mobile pop-ups to prove out a new customer behavior that is both more sustainable and lower cost for the brand to deliver. This also shifts how your teams work: embedding lightweight prototyping, faster feedback loops with customers, and an emphasis on small bets that unlock new opportunities into the day-to-day. These small wins build resilience. And resilience builds momentum. In this climate, progress—even if it’s imperfect—is the boldest move you can make.

4. Digital products can offer a beacon of hope

With physical goods and global delivery models under pressure, we’re seeing renewed interest in digital experiences and revenue streams. For many, digital feels like the one domain where they can move faster and iterate more freely. Consider re-imagining the digital experience not just as a supporting channel or companion app, but as a core engine of new customer acquisition, brand loyalty, and resilience. Let’s say a health-insurance provider is facing rising service costs: launching an AI-assisted care-navigation app where members could check symptoms, book telehealth visits, and file claims all in one place could help the company cut support call volume, improve the customer experience, and help people catch health issues early, avoiding costlier medical interventions later. To unlock the full potential of digital, invest in product-led growth strategies across customer touchpoints—where value is delivered through the experience itself, and innovation is driven by real-time data and user feedback.

Where we’re going, there are no roads.

There’s no map for what comes next—but that doesn’t mean the answer is to stand still. Regaining momentum is less about knowing the final destination and more about having the right compass to guide you through the fog. At IDEO, we’re working with leaders across industries to shift out of survival mode and design for the clarity, confidence, and energy their organizations need right now. If you’re ready to move through the uncertainty, we’re here to help you chart your course.